I wonder how much the Discord leaks led to the postponement of the invasion. It seemed like they were in a relatively good position prior to the leaks, but afterwards the “Spring” part of the counteroffensive didn’t happen, which leads me to believe that they intentionally withheld for some (or multiple) reasons.
We may have to wait a few years for the books to be published to find out. I actually think things seem to be progressing according to what feels like an optimal plan; wait for Bakhmut to finally finish falling, then immediately start hitting them with the potential encirclement of Bakhmut and simultaneously invade Belgorod to force Russia to spread its forces everywhere trying to cling defensively to those places. Then once their forces are committed, find the place they weakened to “pay” for those reinforcements and hammer that with the counteroffensive.
Maybe they had other plans and this is just what they wound up with, but it seems decent to me.
That does sound plausible. Wagner / Russian forces appeared to be getting closer to culmination over the last few weeks (been listening to the daily Ukraine The Latest podcast by the Telegraph), so it makes sense to launch an offensive if Russian offensive capacity is spent. What’s more likely happening right now is that the Ukrainians are shaping the battlefield; probing for weaknesses and identifying areas for the hammer that you mentioned to fall.
