While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful

While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful

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    • Ben Hur Horse Race@lemm.ee
      20·
      4 hours ago

      kamala harris isn’t hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying “yeah hillary clinton can unite people” and I said “…against her” and I barely cared about politics back then.

      • lennybird@lemmy.worldEnglish
        11·
        2 hours ago

        Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

        Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton… only to predict she’d lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn’t. He then changed his model.

        Also I’m not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down… Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.

        • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
          1·
          16 minutes ago

          arbitrary interpretation

          They aren’t as arbitrary as they seem, it’s just that the media don’t go into the full detail.

          For example, key 2 is actually “The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes”, which is clearly true

          Furthermore, the entire point of this method is that it ignores opinion polls. So it makes no difference whether the public actually wanted a primary contest or not. Likewise, it doesn’t matter whether scandals have “lost meaning”.

      • Frozengyro@lemmy.world
        1·
        2 hours ago

        Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn’t mean they aren’t wildly incorrect from time to time.

  • paf0@lemmy.world
    75·
    5 hours ago

    It only matters in the swing states. The ones where they’re trying to purge the voter registrations, sometimes successfully. The system is broken.

    • Tired and bored@lemmy.world
      6·
      2 hours ago

      As a non-american this scares me.

      What the fuck does Trump have to offer to the average citizen? He is basing his campaign on

      • tax cuts for the extra rich
      • iMmIgRaNtS (who Harris wants to stop anyways)
      • licking the ass of Putin and Nethanyau
      • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
        1·
        11 minutes ago

        He is similar to popular non-Americans like Berlusconi, Meloni, Le Pen, and Kickl. Americans aren’t unique in that regard.

      • Oyml77@lemmy.today
        3·
        22 minutes ago

        Unfortunately, politics is teams sports in this country. Too many people are concerned with their side winning rather than what is best for the country or even for themselves. The propaganda machine has pushed people to support a small subset of issues as the biggest issues and these are often not the issues that actually have any impact on the day-to-day lives of most Americans. Critical thinking is not part of the discourse anymore for a large percentage, just rhetoric and slogans.

  • Buffalox@lemmy.world
    51·
    5 hours ago

    Is that like rubber bands, it’s the same amount only stretched? Like we changed the scales on the graph to make it look bigger.
    Is it really normal to write like that headline in English? Because to me it sounds stupid.
    Seems increases would be the “normal” word to use.

    • makyo@lemmy.worldEnglish
      3·
      3 hours ago

      Semantics but I mean it does actually indicate more people polling for her instead of Turnip so it’s not stretching in that sense.

      I think they use that word because in American politics things are so polarized that it really feels like any gain really does seem like stretching the tiny group of people that can be won over like a rubber band.

    • A_A@lemmy.world
      4·
      4 hours ago

      i agree but the title would become :
      “Harris stretches increases lead over Trump in what could be significant increase”
      … so then you have twice this same word in the title, which doesn’t sound so good.