Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn’t +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we’ve seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn’t violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden’s performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy’s kink.
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It’s not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss…but also not “on pace to lose the election.”
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount
That’s the thing: there are no numbers which do not warrant a recount here in Georgia anymore. The MAGA elections board has passed rules that force them to do hand counts (which they can easily fudge to be slightly off), then use that manufactured discrepancy as an excuse to refuse to certify. Even if there are a fucking million more votes for Harris, ratfucking it so that one hand count comes out 1,000,001 and another comes out 1,000,000 will cause them to say “welp, something went wrong and the vote is invalid” and send fucking Trump electors anyway.
So write off GA. Harris has to win Either NC or AZ to make it such that TWO state level results would have to be forced to the SC. Whichever Sunbelt state +1.
It’s hard. “Doing ok” isn’t fucking good enough and the apologists willing to make excuses for Democrats at every turn are the very reason Democrats struggle so hard to do anything legislatively or electorally.
What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver’s original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.
Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn’t +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we’ve seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn’t violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden’s performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy’s kink.
Ah, goalpost-moving. I should have known.
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It’s not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss…but also not “on pace to lose the election.”
Remember that the GoP is gunning to not certify election results so it goes to a Republican controlled SC that has been shown to be corrupt
I don’t know what the threshold needs to be for the SC to behave, but it needs to be hit, whatever it is
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
That’s the thing: there are no numbers which do not warrant a recount here in Georgia anymore. The MAGA elections board has passed rules that force them to do hand counts (which they can easily fudge to be slightly off), then use that manufactured discrepancy as an excuse to refuse to certify. Even if there are a fucking million more votes for Harris, ratfucking it so that one hand count comes out 1,000,001 and another comes out 1,000,000 will cause them to say “welp, something went wrong and the vote is invalid” and send fucking Trump electors anyway.
So write off GA. Harris has to win Either NC or AZ to make it such that TWO state level results would have to be forced to the SC. Whichever Sunbelt state +1.
It’s hard. “Doing ok” isn’t fucking good enough and the apologists willing to make excuses for Democrats at every turn are the very reason Democrats struggle so hard to do anything legislatively or electorally.
What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver’s original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.