The federal government could default on its debt as soon as July, a new forecast from the Bipartisan Policy Center warns, raising pressure on Congress for action.
The prominent think tank forecast Monday that the so-called “X-Date” would likely arrive between mid-July and early October.
Beyond basic debt stuff, most of the global financial system uses US Treasury bonds/bills as a base. Argentina can default. But when people talk about a foreign central bank owning “dollars,” they don’t have stacks of hundred dollar bills in a cellar. They have interest-paying treasuries. Probably 99% of countries and major corporations use US treasuries as collateral for loans. Every retiree who can afford it shifts from stocks to bonds because bonds are supposed to be the ultimate safe asset. Contracts between companies often assume U.S. debt instruments are the safest asset.
So, if the U.S. actually defaults, the house of cards comes crashing down and there’s chaos and anarchy. Not the imaginary fun kind of anarchy, either. Most corporations probably fail. (And having Bitcoin on your gaming PC isn’t going to save you when there’s riots and no electricity or internet.)
My guess is that if it really happened, it’d be reversed within hours or they’d mint the trillion dollar coin or do some shenanigans to keep society from collapsing. The U.S. cannot default on debts.
The whole reason MAGA Republicans use the debt ceiling as leverage is because it would cause societal collapse. They’re basically saying, “I don’t give a fuck about the financial system. Cut aid to poor people or we’ll blow it all up.”