Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed on Tuesday that US crime statistics are “only” going up. In fact, most US crime numbers went down last year – and the decreases included one of the largest national declines in murder ever recorded.
Trump’s speech in Michigan focused on crime perpetrated by people who illegally entered the US. After he said that crime in Venezuela has fallen amid a wave of emigration from the South American country – and exaggerated the extent of Venezuela’s improvement – he added, “Wouldn’t we love to have a statistic where crime is down 67%? Ours is only going in one direction.” He pointed sharply upward with his hand.
Facts First: Trump’s claim that US crime statistics are only going up is false. Murder, other kinds of reported violent crime and reported property crime all dropped in 2023, according to preliminary statistics published by the FBI. Crime data expert Jeff Asher says that, if confirmed by final data, the roughly 13% decline in murder would be the single biggest one-year drop on record in US data dating back to 1960, while the roughly 6% decline in reported violent crime would be one of the biggest on record; reported violent crime declined in every quadrant of the country, in cities of all sizes and in in rural communities. In addition, as Asher has pointed out, partial urban data for early 2024 shows that the number of murders again declined sharply in the first two months of this year.
One of the frustrating parts of these “Trump said…” headlines is that they don’t counter the prevailing view. They just entrench the view behind “Do I like/trust Donald Trump?”
Because, if you’re MAGA, then you’re going to use this as evidence of the Lying Mainstream Media.
And if you’re a Bidencrat, you’re going to use this as evidence of Lying Trump.
But at the end of the day, both these cohorts are still going to be sold on Nextdoor “there was a black person in my neighborhood!” grainy door-cam footage and Sinclair Media police-sirens local “nonpartisan” media coverage.