At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn’t Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses.
But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That’s a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they’ll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn’t completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It’s entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn’t Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
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But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That’s a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they’ll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
Removed by mod
I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn’t completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
Removed by mod
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