Really you don’t need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you’re voting for Trump:
certain lemmy users around these parts absolutely frothing at the mouth seeing this graph
A similar article will be posted every time Monk posts one supporting a 3rd party spoiler from now on.
so you’re gonna have to find like 20 articles a day… also don’t forget to copy paste a 6 paragraph defense of “I swear I’m not Russian I just post the articles” in the comments of every post
I do have the time… :)
Genuine question: why has he not been banned? To me he seems to repeatedly violate the rule about arguing in good faith, and - to be honest - his passive aggressive civility feels at times more hostile than straight up attacks.
We’ve talked about it amongst ourselves with the mods and admins and have concluded that having a shitty opinion is not infringing.
They do post legitimate sources with legitimate opinions. They’re BAD opinions, but you aren’t going to get banned for having a bad opinion.
I don’t much have an issue with the material they chose to post - the nature of a link aggregator will sort them to the bottom regardless due how how voting works and as you say, they’re legitimate sources.
My issue is more regarding their conduct in the comment sections.
It’s not the opinion, it’s the JAQ energy and baiting.
If they just posted articles, that’s one thing.
They legitimately try to bait people into being heated about things. Afterwhich, they cry victim
Yeah but is it against the rules to be an asshole or a crybaby ? I tend to say stupid shit when drinking and have gotten a ban and a few comments and posts deleted, but it would be a shame for something minor to get me a bigger ban or what not.
I’m not going to directly link the user because that’s bad behavior but they have a very clear routine they follow on every post. Having an opinion is fine, acting like you are following a script is eventually really lame. Especially when the end of the script usually is calling people out for victimizing them
This user often posts about Jill Stein, and is exclusively critical of democrats.
Spoiler implies we would vote for a Democrat if there were no 3rd party options. We would not. There’s a larger chance you would vote for a republican than us voting Democrat
For you, personally, that may be true. Statistically speaking, in general, it’s very much the opposite:
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/the-data-how-third-parties-could-be-spoilers-that-elect-trump
“Similarly, Third Way’s polling has found that Biden’s voters are 13 percentage points more likely to consider voting for a third party than Trump’s voters. While Biden has a higher ceiling, with his possible vote totals well north of 50%, Trump has a stronger floor: his voters are more loyal, so third parties are less likely to draw them away.”
If you lean left, and you fail to vote for the Democratic candidate, you only help the Republican candidate.
There’s the confusion, we dont lean left, we are left. Democrat voters lean left then vote for non left leaning candidates. In rhetoric the DNC may sound like they lean left but in action they do not.
Compared to Trump, Nixon is to the left.
I mean shit, Dick Cheney is left of Trump. What does that say?
No kidding! When Cheney and Fucking Frank Luntz are like “Hey, maybe he’s too extreme…” you know you’re in trouble.
Has anyone talked to Karl Rove lately? LOL.
Republican Karl Rove says Trump got ‘crushed by a woman he called dumb as a rock’ during ‘train wreck’ debate
By Obama’s own admission, Nixon was to the left of Obama.
This is mind-bogglingly weird. I’ll never understand it.
I don’t think it’s all that weird to recognize that neither party is what you want or will advance your political goals.
It’s pretty weird to insist on a course of action that won’t result in something you want. If you think both parties are the same, you’re wildly misinformed.
I don’t think anyone suggested both parties are the same.
If they aren’t the same in their view, they they would be sensible to care about which wins. They have a stake in a less harmful result.
But literally throwing away their vote on a third party, they are inflicting harm on themselves, the electorate, and the world.
You are correct, albeit for the wrong reasons :D
Oh God I didn’t even realize how badly proportioned the pie charts were. They didn’t even generate new ones they just copy pasted an image and changed the percentage number. Aghhhhhhhh I hate this I hate this I hate this
And now you will see it everywhere and it will annoy you ever more.
Also I at first though that your profile pick was that of Darth Vitiate since it fits your user name. But its actually soldier with twin tails and I hate it.
I’m frothing at the mouth because it’s distorted, making an easy comparison by visuals impossible. The numbers don’t match the size of the pies
Someone fucked these up badly and there’s no way to tell from this how.
Are the numbers swapped between candidates but the sizes correct? Are the sizes swapped between candidates and the numbers correct?
As an aside, this is why serious data people don’t use pie charts. They’re terrible for lots of reasons, one being it’s very hard to compare areas instead of lengths, like a bar chart, as demonstrated by how many people didn’t notice these were so bad at first.
If you see data presented in a pie chart you should immediately be suspicious that it’s dishonest or incompetent.
None of that is to take away that voting for third parties this election is a terrible move - just saying this chart is useless.
Not really. The point has always been that the dems need pressure to change their genocidal policies. If you vote blue unconditionally then it won’t take long until the next blue candidate will be on the same level as trump. Show these graphs to the democratic party and tell them to listen to 3rd party voters.
The argument is always that “A vote for Not X is a vote for Y”, forgetting how many third party voters would simply skip the ballot line or refuse to vote at all if these options weren’t available.
Calling Jill Stein and Chase Oliver “fascist enablers” for appearing on the ballot misses the entire reason they have a vote base at all.
Eh…we call em as we see em.
When I was younger I liked stein…now that I’ve seen her just show up for the last 3 or 4 elections and not much else…the pieces all came together.
She’s definitely past her expiration date.
I guess you can always write in Claudia de la Cruz with the PSL party.
The entire reason they have a vote base at all is not dissimilar to Trump: civic illiteracy. Unfortunately she appeals greatly to these newcomers to politics or those who care not about watching the other side literally take a sledgehammer to the country but rather point to the other side for not fixing the damage quickly enough. There was a brief moment in time when I was a new voter and at a very shallow level liked the Green Party platform and Stein…
… But it didn’t take long for me to realize that was utterly self-defeatist. And if Stein actually cared about the issues she pretends to care about, then she would simply run for Congress as AOC or Sanders have done and influence change in the Democratic party. Changing the party from the inside is far easier than going against the mathematically-impossible 3rd-party vote that ultimately results in a proven Spoiler Vote. So you’re right… Some naive folks do support Stein; and those naive folks absolutely have more in common with the Democratic coalition than the Republican ones. So why would they ever want to support Republicans via Spoiler vote?
Anyways, we should all be advocating for Campaign Finance & Election Reform so we can truly vote for who we most ideally want without risk to supporting the person or party furthest from our views.
Anyways, we should all be advocating for Campaign Finance & Election Reform
You’re not going to get that with an incumbent party. How do you abolish FPTP inside an organization that won’t give DC it’s statehood?
An Incumbent party already supports DC statehood and it would benefit their party greatly no less. It is completely possible to transform a party (e.g., how Democrats used to be what Republicans are now) and also push another party out (e.g., the Whigs) from within. We do that one Representative at a time, such as how Bernie Sanders and AOC have transformed the Democrat party.
I’ve written extensively elsewhere on the topic of abolishing & replacing FPTP and more, and ultimately, I believe it’s going to require a groundswell bipartisan effort state-by-state on a scale as big as the civil rights movement to pressure for a new Constitutional Amendment, along with an accompanying state-level Constitutional amendment in each state. To me it’s the only way to truly fix all the core problems while also making it immune to the corrupt Supreme Court.
An Incumbent party already supports DC statehood
They failed to pass a statehood bill in 2009 and again in 2017. That would suggest the party does not, in fact, support the change.
In both cases the outcome was overwhelmingly a result of Republican obstructionism with the vast majority who voted to support DC Statehood being Democrat. There is no reason Democrats wouldn’t want another state that would be the bluest in the country to statehood lol. Democrats had a filibuster-proof super-majority for like, two months, and if you recall that kind of had other things going on at the time in 2009—including but not limited to health care reform and recession recovery.
In 2017… You know who was President and who controlled the Senate, right…?
In both cases the outcome was overwhelmingly a result of Republican obstructionism
Democrats claiming they need 60 votes to do anything are as big a pack of liars as Republicans claiming Unitary Executive is a thing.
These are institutions that are hostile to a majority black state.
If you were sincerely never going to vote for either I honestly don’t care. Throw your ballot in the garbage physically or technically, I do not give a shit.
But MAGA propagandists are also on here campaigning for Donald every day by trying to turn voters against the only reasonable viable candidate.
If your primary strategy for winning elections is diverting people into third parties, your election prospects are bleak.
A big part of Trump’s problem is that he’s glued to his base. He can’t say anything appealing to a general audience without pissing off the anti-government haters at his flank.
I don’t see anyone on this site trying to argue for Trump. They’re all closeted in other communities, where any criticism of the GOP is forbidden.
Their primary strategy is using propaganda on fear-addicted racists to bring their voters to the polls, along with gerrymandering to maximize the effects of vote suppression strategies.
Vote suppression strategies includes not only closing polls and other bullshit, but also MAGA propagandists cosplaying as third party voters and attempting to deter votes that would otherwise go Dem.
When your strategy clearly cannot lead to your stated goal given the circumstances, you are either not smart enough to recognize that, or you are lying about your goal.
That doesn’t change even if someone agrees with your stated goal. Ignoring the circumstances doesn’t make them go away.
Fuck Jill Stein. Never forget the dinner she attended
If people can tolerate Trump being on the Epstein flight logs and Harris taking enormous sums from the Crypto-Bros, I don’t think Stein’s dinner with the Russians is going to phase them.
But I guess you can always default to the Libertarians. Can’t think of anything problematic about a bunch of Americans that idolize Milei.
The enablers of fascism are the 2 capitalist owned parties
Scratch a liberal…
If Americans want a third choice support ranked choice voting
^ THIS ^ - As I said elsewhere… Jesus, if ALASKA can do it…
There are two states where ranked choice exists apparently. Are these the states that the third parties are spending money in? They’d be the most likely places for them to win and show they are viable in any way.
I don’t know the second state, Portland has it for the first time at the local level and that’s turning into a clown car, I cannot WAIT to see how it works out in practice!
So far:
118 candidates running for 14 offices:
https://www.opb.org/article/2024/09/06/118-candidates-portland-election/?outputType=amp
One losing union support over mass traffic violations:
Multiple being investigated by the Secretary of State for trading donations to meet matching funds thresholds:
Second state is Maine.
yeah we need to make it less dangerous.
This is the way. It’s perfectly okay to want to support a third party, but it isn’t done by wasting your FPTP vote.
Or STAR voting. Or anything but FPTP.
Im glad you posted this, but no both-sides smoothbrain will be convinced by it, since they are either lost on the plot, a bad faith actor, or unable to engage in real world politics.
Still saving it, just to have one more post to bash them over the head with.
It’s not about convincing a both-sidser.
It’s about convincing someone who reads an article posted by a both-sidser and goes “Hmmm… maybe they’re on to something…”
They aren’t, they really, really aren’t.
Another good one here:
"Don’t Fall for the Third-Party Trick
A progressive who stays home on Election Day — or backs Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or No Labels — is voting for Donald Trump."
"Progressives should not make the same mistake that Ernst Thälmann made in 1932. The leader of the German Communist Party, Thälmann saw mainstream liberals as his enemies, and so the center and left never joined forces against the Nazis. Thälmann famously said that “some Nazi trees must not be allowed to overshadow a forest” of social democrats, whom he sneeringly called “social fascists.”
After Adolf Hitler gained power in 1933, Thälmann was arrested. He was shot on Hitler’s orders in Buchenwald concentration camp in 1944."
I thought Kennedy dropped out to support Trump? Maybe I’m wrong I’m not American, but thought I heard that.
But yeah I agree. It’s just splitting the vote, the same thing happens in the UK. For a long time until this most recent election we only had the Conservatives on the right, whereas on the left you had Labour, Lib Dem’s and Greens, yet the Conservatives kept getting back in because the left wing vote was split, they wouldn’t work together to step down in certain seats to let the party most likely to be beat the Conservatives stand.
Thank god, in a weird way, for Reform UK, massively splitting the right wing vote this time around. Allowing Labour to win. If Labour don’t change the voting system to proportional representation now that they’ve finally got the chance after a 15 year wait, then they are truly mugs. They won’t though I’m sure. They are hopefully supposed to be letting 16 year olds vote which should help.
But yeah, that Hitler story gave me the shivers lol. Apparently we aren’t allowed to call Trump a fascist because it pisses off Republican voters and caused that assassination attempt (even though I swear the guy was a republican voter??)
But like; he is literally a fascist. For me personally, if someone said, “we can stop Trump from ever being elected, but the price is you have to cancel the election and just say that George Bush won and let him have another term”. I’d take that deal. I genuinely think Trump is so dangerous, it shouldn’t be a republican vs democrats thing, it should be an Americans for Democracy thing.
Article is from before Kennedy dropped out, but he’s still on the ballot in key states so it still applies.
Oh really? I don’t really get how your system works I guess lol. Cos I thought if he drops out he’s out. So he’s still running against Trump in some states basically? I would have thought he’d be taking votes from the right rather than the left though. But I probably just don’t understand your system properly tbf.
He tried to remove himself from the ballot in multiple states and was told “LOL - yeah, no.”
There are deadlines due to having to print the ballots, once you’re past a certain point, there’s no going back.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4872514-states-where-robert-f-kennedy-jr-still-on-ballot/
He’s currently on the ballot in nearly half the country:
Alaska
California
Colorado
Delaware
Hawaii
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Ahh ok haha well that’s good at least. I can’t see any left leaning would-be democrat voters voting for the guy who dumped the carcass of a bear in… I wanna say… Central Park?
I love that they’re like “paper doesn’t grow on trees dude, we ain’t wasting anymore”.
I don’t really understand why these independents bother. Do they really think they’re gonna turn 3% (being generous) into 51%?? I don’t think so. I wonder if there’s some ulterior motive in play, like to just get their name out there and then with that name recognition, get elected into a much lower down position at state level.
Jill Stein in particular who at her BEST got 1.07%.
Generally she’s 0.1% to 0.3%.
I have given up talking to these people. I really can’t with Rule 3 because I do not believe they deserve any form of civility, and since I can’t call them out directly, I’ll ignore them while destroying their points.
The targets of my takedowns of the ‘Imma Vote Jill Stein!111one!1one!!’'s articles are the undecided and wavering voters who REALLY aren’t sold on Harris/Walz, but really don’t like Donald Trump. That’s where the ‘a vote for anyone but Harris/Walz just makes it easier for Donald Trump to steal the election’ line comes in. The ‘lost the plot/bad faith actor/naive poster’ people can’t be convinced, but we don’t have to, fortunately.
I know of a couple of Lemmy users who frequently hype third party candidates, and who will not like this analysis at all, lol.
As do I, I see the reports all the time. :)
The underlying fallacy, IMO, is that people think the purpose of elections is to send a message to the government, instead of choosing the government (and that all political problems can be solved by sending the right message).
The best way to approach an election is to determine the most likely scenario in which your vote would actually decide the outcome (which in practice means a choice between the two frontrunners in a FPTP system), and then consider what difference that would make in terms of actual policy (rather than symbolism).
And recognize that this alone won’t fix all the problems with government—that will require other types of involvement beyond voting.
Unfortunately, too many radicals on both sides have over-inflated senses of their own self importance. “We’re sending a message!” Yeah, no, no you aren’t. You’re actively doing nothing in order to make yourself feel good. That’s it.
On the nose. The ones screaming the loudest about Democrats supporting genocide. Or saying something stupid like blue Maga, trying to deflect from the fact that they themselves are the most maga like of any on the left. Culturally slave to Virtue signaling no matter how much it hurts them. Get an instant down vote.
If we’re going to send them a message. We should be running against them at the local level across the nation. Or better yet, coopting the party and make our candidate theirs. 3rd party presidential candidates are an exercise in pyrrhic self flagellation.
With the exception of Donald Trump, every single US President previously served as a Senator, or Governor, or a Major General, or Secretary of State, or Director of the CIA, or something. Some kind of higher office to prove their fitness in a political administrative role.
If we want a progressive president, we need progressive members of Congress and State Governors. Not only so we have an experienced candidates to put forward, but by having a significant representation people will just psychologically consider a progressive candidate to actually be viable.
And if we want progressive Governors and Congresspeople, we need progressive mayors and County Commissioners and Attorneys General to pull from. And if we want those, we need progressive City Council members and School Board members and all the other local elected offices.
These third party candidates with no real political experience shooting straight for President are so counterproductive, it’s difficult to imagine they’re anything but bad faith, intentional spoilers.
I feel like the most viable path to a third party at this point:
- Ranked choice somehow becomes national law (and while we’re at it, other election reform) — yes, already very unlikely here, although it’d help Dems with reelection so under them it’s possible if they get rid of the filibuster. Gop would never.
- Splinters make a better third party, I’m thinking the "RINO"s or MAGA folk. Maybe the progressive wing of Democrars. The current third parties are pretty bad as they are given they don’t seem to target places they could actually win.
- Said faction gets more traction and the model gets tested for a few elections until it’s more normal. New paries emerge, etc.
It ain’t happening mostly cause of 1, either because the political capital would be too expensive or because it’s not ultimately in their interest. The only way 1 can happen is if it becomes a major issue and they’ve got much more lower hanging fruit, even in election rules (I’d be happy just having electrical college changed to popular vote).
National Election Reform would be great, but that would require we actually have national elections, which we don’t. :)
It’s not even a matter of 50 state elections… each election precinct is essentially it’s own little fiefdom at this point, with officials who BELIEVE they’re free to say “I aint gonna certify!” even if the State Secretary of State will put the screws to them if they do.
Holy shit you’re so right on all the districts being treated like a fiefdom. I like to think i keep up with politics but this idea has never crossed my mind. Im going to be looking at my local elections closer now.
Funny how third parties always rear their heads at election time but remain almost entirely quiet the rest of the term. Where does the money come from?
We are a two party system.
Yup, at least outside Alaska we are…
Who would have thought ALASKA would have the most progressive statewide voting system?
Can we get that going elsewhere?
https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/#RankedChoice
“In accordance with Alaska law, all general elections will be conducted by Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). RCV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Only the top four candidates who received the greatest number of votes for any office in the primary will appear on the general election ballot. There will still be a space for write-in candidates except for Presidential races. For a candidate to win, they must receive a majority (50% + 1) of total votes cast. If no candidate receives a majority of 1st choice votes in the 1st round of counting, more rounds of counting continue until a candidate reaches a majority.”
We’re working on it here in Colorado, but the two entrenched parties are fighting us tooth and nail. and don’t forget, Alaska has a measure on the ballot to repeal that this election.
Were working on it in Oregon too, ballot measure in November. Our democrats are partially on board with it but all the conservative counties are fighting it for obvious reasons. I’m optimistic though. Oregon has a good track record on average of being forward looking.
This is where primaries are vitally important. They provide accountability with low risk to the overall direction of governance.
It could well be a consequence of how recently it became a state. There’s a similar situation in the UK where elections for the entire country use FPTP but elections for the devolved parliaments (Northern Ireland in 1973, Scotland in 1999, and Wales also in 1999) use other better options . Maybe seeing FPTP in action for a long time just turns you against it.
NZ’s Parliament was regularly described as “more Westminster than Westminster” until we moved to MMP in the 90s.
It has its bugs but it’s far better than FPP and many alternatives.
I wouldn’t take this graphic too seriously…
0.5% rounded up to the nearest whole number
That’s how math works
That’s how math works
No, it is really not.
What is 0.5 rounded up to the nearest whole number then?
What does it have to do with 48% presented as more than 50?
One exception proves the rule. :) But Florida is gonna Florida. There’s no question who they’re voting for.
It everyone else we need to worry about.
One exception proves the rule. :)
No, it doesn’t. Also my point is not “how Florida voted”
It is that the blue part of the right graph is clearly bigger than half, yet the text description says 48%.
So the whole graph set is not really worth drawing any conclusion from, because you can’t trust the data.
.
They must have let people from each state make their own graph.
Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was not due to any erosion in support for Donald Trump. Rather, not only did Trump’s raw vote total increase, but in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s share of the vote actually increased.
Still mind-boggling and a source of great personal disgust while being a national disgrace. One can only hope that enough people have soured on him since then, after countless displays of racism, xenophobia, sexism, authoritarianism, bigotry, and incompetence. A twice impeached loser felon grifter that’s clearly a russian asset should not stand a chance, yet here we are. Makes me sad.
Between the people trying to give you healthcare and secure your job, and the people trying to let your miscarrying wife bleed out in the parking lot of a for-profit hospital, some morons prefer the latter. Why? “because he’s racist like me!” seems to be the deciding factor. Yes, that is why my parents are voting for him. and my mom is a poll-worker 🤦♂️
That’s such a messed up pie chart. It shows numerically 51% but the pie wedge is smaller than 48%. Man, I can only handle SO much in a day!!!
Quick some body run as a super conservative as a third party and take away some GOP votes please.
Florida 2020 graph is not visually accurate.
Oh wow, thirdway.org says you can’t have an alternative to two candidates who don’t represent you and have to choose between the candidates offered to you no matter your politics!
You don’t say!
In case any reader of this post isn’t aware: thirdway.org is the website for people associated with the Third Way which is described as a triangulation between communism and capitalism but ends up still being capitalism somehow.
Triangulation was a middle ground between Democrat and Republican ideology developed by Bill Clinton, Third Way, and the DLC. And has helped shift the entire party to the right. It has nothing to do with communism.
Garbage like this article and Third Way is self serving
Third way politics were common in Europe and there they were explicitly anticommunist. I think they were even promoted by state department cutouts. I didn’t want to make it solely about the us third way even though that website is the us third way clintonite psychos.
Whomst are absolutely anticommunist as well.
I’m just astounded that a person would post an article from the third way to make the case against third parties.
Confirmation bias
I don’t get your meaning there.
Third way is essentially a rightwing capitalist think tank posing as progressive. They, along with Bill Clinton and his DLC started the party shift to the right to in order to appeal to big money that had normally been flowing to republicans. They are opposed to third parties because it would harm capital.
Their name Third Way doesnt imply an an alternative approach to government, but representative of triangulation, the centrist approach to government, a little leftish a little rightish
Yup.
