Fox cable hosts are doing the job of the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, by admitting that the economy under President Biden is strong. Bernstein joins MSNBC’s Ali Velshi to discuss the latest “expectation-busting” jobs report.
There are genuine grievances in the economy; most notably perhaps the affordable housing crisis. My home’s value is so fucking inflated it’s not even funny. It’s not worth what it is appraised for; none of these houses are. Chronic homelessness is at an all-time high.
That being said — since we are going into election year — we need to frame this not as what we see but what Republicans would normally boast of if Donnie2Scoops was in office.
So context matters. By the standards of what Republicans usually tout, the economy is thriving. Which means they’ve got nothing going into an election year… Which means they’re fucked.
Consider that Democrats won a midterm election during worse economic conditions in what is historically a rough midterm for an incumbent President’s party. Now consider the same with the risk of Democracy on the line, abortion rights, and a strong economy.
Republicans are fucked. (But still, get 5 people you know to register and vote). Hence why they’re so desperately clinging to this BoRDEr cRiSis as their only issue that’s sticking — and Biden just called their bluff on it.
There’s quite a few places where right and left agree on some point, but not what to do about it. It’s not Horseshoe Theory, because they only meet in a single place and then run in different directions. They don’t come up with the same solutions at all.
Republicans say the economy is failing, Democrats do not, but the left also thinks the economy is failing. But the left think it’s failing because it does not provide a base of support for everyone and would like to fix it. Republicans don’t give a shit about that and would prefer to keep pulling the ladder up behind them.
This is the thing. We have objective measures of the economy and by those measures (the same ones we’d use to say a Republican is doing a great job) the economy is doing well.
The broader left becomes something of a useful tool for Republicans to use in election years during these discussions, because while Republicans agree with leftist feelings about the economy until elected. Afterwards, those same metrics they insist are incomplete or don’t count are exactly the things they’ll tout again to say they’re doing a great job.
Leftists need to get an objective set of metrics together and then consistently grade all policymakers on them. I also think that it’s not solely (or even mostly) up to the president to determine economic policy. Presidents have an effect, for sure, but it’s largely stuff passed through the Congress that impacts the economy.
Well said. In essence, perfections becomes the enemy of good. Because leftists frankly tend to be more informed on the nuances of the economy — and especially what impacts the poor and middle-class — they have more specific demands. Which is fine, but we must always remember that Republicans will never care about those things; whereas we’re seeing legitimate progress and a reshaping of the Democratic platform in just the last 10 years.
People of a certain level and type of education think data and policies mean more than sentiment and messaging. But for many,t he data is secondary. You can see my comment on gas prices and unemployment being rooted in data and vibes. But the vibes for most people are what matters. And the vibes on election day are what matter most to undecided voters. I don’t think either party really gets the sense of dread that most people have and may never get it.
Which midterm are you talking about? I’m assuming you’re talking about the 2018 mid-term when Democrats picked up 41 seats since they lost the House in 2022. But another way of looking at the last five midterms, you see the midterms going to the party that is not the president’s. So I don’t think that the 2018 midterms provide a great reference point for the presidential election. Additionally, those gains in the 2018 election have slowly eroded giving control in the house to the Republicans.
But I wanted to address your strategy first and foremost since you address messaging. The projected map has Biden at 226, Trump at 235, and 77 to close to call. Those 77 electoral votes are spread across six states:
In 2020, all six went Biden by less than 5%. In the 2022 midterm, Republicans gained seats in the house from Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If those three switch to Trump, Trump wins with 272. Having a record showing in California or New York does little to help with these strategic areas.
I’m not too certain what matters to the voters in these six states, but in Arizona, the BoRDEr cRiSis, as you condescendingly noted, probably matters to them. In all six of those states, you’ll need a get out a vote drive to convince people to vibe with Biden. Usually those people are young and have a little more free time. But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.
I don’t know what ground work the DNC has been doing, but I hope they’ve built a trusted network to get people to the polls. Either way, I don’t think the “Republicans are fucked”. It think we are looking at a close election again.
I’d wager we can simply call vibes the right-wing grip on shallow political talking-points at the national level, for which they’re pretty effective at admittedly. Such is the nature that lies and bullshit are easier to spread than the complexity of truth & reality. So in that respect, sure, there are many people who don’t have the vibe or feel the sentiment that things are going well — not because the data is wrong, but simply because they live in an alternate reality; an echo-chamber. A place where that data just doesn’t exist.
There is, frankly, little I can think of that we can do to reach these people. On the other hand, I think Donald has already cast a wide net and those who were trump supporters remain trump supporters (minus the dead ones from old boomers dying, covid, etc.). Yeah he’s making sligh tinroads with the likes of certain Hispanic populations — mostly in Florida and Texas, but Nevada is up in the air. The question is whether these inroads outpace the influx of Gen Z and Millennials who overall lean Dem.
Actually I am referring to 2022 midterms, because as you said – the midterms tend to go to the party not the President’s; and if we compare either 2010 or 2014 to 2022, then Democrats vastly overperformed in 2022, turning what was coined the “red wave,” to at best a red tinkle, or even a blue tinkle depending on what you prioritize. Because of the reversal of Roe, youth showed up and offset what could’ve otherwise been a disastrous midterm during a rough economy. We won key Secretary of State positions, Governorships, and expanded a lead in the Senate. Yes, lost the House, true. Though not by much.
If Democratic turnout meets 2020 or 2022 levels, which it should, then I think Biden is in a stronger position now than he was in 2020 due to:
In the absence of major economic issues, I predict the priorities of preserving Democracy, Justice, and Women’s Rights will rise to forefront – especially after campaign spending really kicks off.
It’s really not that big of an issue. It’s no different than the “mIGRanT CaRaVaN” that Donnie tried to fearmonger with as he pulled National Guard from their Thanksgiving dinners to try to drum up hysteria… Which turned out to be nothing. Hell even of the recent MAGA convoy themselves arrived and are confused..
So, what exactly is going in favor for Republicans compared to past election cycles…? The age issue remains a constant with both Presidents. I “condescendingly” wrote it that way because it’s patently a manufactured crisis. There are myriad issues that far exceed in this in impact to Americans overall. Yet I admit that the “vibe” right-wing media projects has this “BoRDeR CriSis” sticking even with some Independents and Democrats. Hence why Biden in a stroke of genius called the bluff of Republicans by giving them everything they wanted, and now they stumble to save face and figure out a way to not pass the legislation because Donald Trump told them not to because it’s literally his only attack going into 2024. Thus, Biden just neutered it.
These are pretty small groups; the BoTh SiDeS false equivalence fallacy is losing its muster as more and more people are made aware of classic wedge-driving techniques during these election cycles. At the end of the day, Biden has already significantly shifted his tone with Israel, and will these people be foolish enough to think Trump won’t be an order-of-magnitude worse in his revocation of rights and complicity in genocides? (Recall, Trump said he’d block all Palestinian refugees… That really sat well with Muslims last time he tried that, didn’t it?). What about Ukraine? We know Trump sucks up to Putin… Will people opt to not vote or vote for Trump, knowing he’ll leave Ukraine hanging? I don’t think so.
I’m not going to say this is a slam-dunk, but I absolutely am more confident now than I was in 2020, or 2022.
So two things and I’ll let it be.
First, the migration issue has gained traction among voters in swing states [2]. Our system doesn’t reward the most popular candidste, but the one who can garner the most votes by state.
Swing states matter. And small, undecided groups in swing states matter most.
All the data and risk assessment mean very little. Politics are emotional. They are in the pain of today and worries of tomorrow.
I think your confidence is on shaky ground. And worry that Biden and the Democrats aren’t doing enough of the right things to be seen as better than anything else.
Well I think we’ve both said our piece and it’s just a matter of time now before speculation turns history. Perhaps more productively we need to ask how we can increase the odds Biden wins by even more, which I’m not opposed.
Well yeah all those stats look great but the problem is that inflated housing just undoes them.
China is coincidentally also facing their economic issues from their massively inflated housing market with Evergrande (again?) collapsing
For sure, completely agree it needs addressed. But like most things, the origin of this housing crisis largely falls on Republicans. Here’s what I’d do if I were Democratic strategists going into this year. Pivots. Lots of pivots.
If Republicans push back on Gun Control talk, you go, "okay, if you don’t want to solve that and deflect, then let’s solve root problems like societal stress, education, single-payer healthcare, and guaranteed access to a therapist at any age
If republicans push back on the boRDeR cRiSis, (a) point out the net-positive economic impact these hard workers fleeing crime & poverty have while (b) pivoting to the domestic terrorist threat from right-wing extremists home-grown here in the US that are the #1 threat per the DOJ.
Combined with the border crisis and affordable housing, Democrats need to go, "Why focus on the small fish at the border and not the foreign investors from China, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia who’ve bought up large swaths of land, stifling the American dream? Hell even the King of Jordan owns 2 Beach-front Malibu properties. Look at all the real estate investors and AirBNB jacking up the prices.
Most of the housing crisis needs to be solved at the local level. Zone for density, support social housing (where the city builds the houses rather than developers), design walkable neighborhoods, and support public transportation.
The federal government can play with interest rates, regulate banks, and provide funding for cities to do the above. It certainly affects things, but it’s highly abstracted from the actual work of getting more people into affordable housing.
I agree zoning is a big one.
There are some top-down factors that need to be addressed in my view; chief among them is cracking down on rental properties, and foreign investors/ownership.
Another facet to this is the deterioration of small and rural communities across the country. We have a massive amount of land and yet the population density in certain hot-spots is off the charts. In this respect, I think we need an investment in bridging the rural-city divide. That means promoting work-from home jobs with federal tax incentives, high-speed rail infrastructure akin to the Interstate system that helps link the rural communities to the cities, and high-speed internet for all akin to the investments FDR made for rural communities in bringing electricity to the masses (The REA).
The ultimate effect of this will be de-congest cities where stress is high, bring people closer to nature, and tap into unused land and foster smaller more tightly-knit communities that aren’t so disconnected from the world.
Democrats aren’t going to fix shit lol they’re just going to bail out the banks again after the economy collapses like Obama did in 2008.
And then pepper spray the protestors on Wall Street
… That was a University police officer on UC Davis campus in California and literally had zero to do with Democrats’ direction, lmao. Wtf you smoking this early?
And don’t care — One side is objectively orders-of-magnitude worse. Progress or damage-control, it makes little difference to me.
Them protesting against the direction of Obama bailing out the big banks?
Seems kinda relevant.
One side is objectively worse but you don’t have to spread the fairy tale that Democrats are going to ever fix anything. They are just slightly less worse.
There’s also NYPD cops pepperspraying the protestors if you like that one more but the picture doesn’t look as funny:
New York City settles Occupy Wall Street pepper spray lawsuit for $50,001
I’m certain the lives of these people would’ve totally improved if the banks and economy completely collapsed, right? As with most things, the direction and anger of these Occupy protests — which I was a part of — had a long list of grievances including “banks got bailed out, we got sold out.” But universally all these problems are squarely of Republican origin; and their solutions are almost all squarely obstructed by Republicans.
After all these years, do people forget that Democrats and Obama only had a filibuster-proof control of Congress for literally only months early in his first term? These protests came after the disastrous 2010 midterm election when many of these Occupy Wall Street protesters stayed home and let the Tea Party (pre-MAGA if you’re unfamiliar) take control of Congress with the Freedom Caucus and other bullshit. So that sure did wonders for all the bankers, didn’t it?
I’ll say they’re considerably-less worse. Obama sympathized with Occupy Wall street. I wonder what Trump would’ve done… Send in FBI vans like he did in Portland?
Bank bailouts got signed in by Bush though…wtf?
Both of them bailed out the banks. This is a both sides thing.
President-elect Barack Obama has teamed up with President George W. Bush for what could be the last major action of this presidency.
Also Obama was the guy dictatoring against Occupy Wall Street.