Lets look at the conditions inside of russia. Russia’s air defenses are stretched very thin right now. And if you don’t believe me, look at the amount of oil refineries destroyed, and the fact ukraine can strike 600 miles into russia.
Not to also mention, the only warfare russia seems to be able to do is meat wave tactics. For those who don’t know, its sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get mowed down by machine guns.
And don’t forget what’s happening around belgorod inside of russia, russia is using border guards as if they were trained army.
At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn’t Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses.
But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That’s a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they’ll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn’t completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It’s entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
The US’s own war games indicate they cannot hold Taiwan.
China’s calculus for whether they need to invade Taiwan is based around whether there will be a peaceful reunification in the future or if it will be used as a springboard for military action against mainland China.
Maybe I should have been more specific, but that’s kind of what I mean. There is real Sinophobia in the US, especially among law makers. So I would see Taiwan given very little support, or a quick escalation to real war.
If the US doesn’t pass aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually.
More importantly for the US, China will see the lack of support as a sign of weakness increasing the timeline for a active conflict over Taiwan.
Ukraine is a test case for Taiwan that the Chinese government is paying extreme attention to
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Lets look at the conditions inside of russia. Russia’s air defenses are stretched very thin right now. And if you don’t believe me, look at the amount of oil refineries destroyed, and the fact ukraine can strike 600 miles into russia.
Not to also mention, the only warfare russia seems to be able to do is meat wave tactics. For those who don’t know, its sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get mowed down by machine guns.
And don’t forget what’s happening around belgorod inside of russia, russia is using border guards as if they were trained army.
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Ah, yes, Vershinin, the first “first director of the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library, from 2009 until 2018”. Solid source.
Imagine being so lost.
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I’m not questioning his experience but rather his objectivity. Something you should try every once in a while looking at the trash you comment here.
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Care to provide sources? So far you only quoted RUSI and what he says about himself…
Oh wait, nevermind, I just realized I don’t really care
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Weird that we don’t have any videos of hundreds of thousands of Russians walking into machine guns.
Weird how the nazi generals claimed the same thing, despite no mention of that in the extensive soviet records released after the coup.
At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn’t Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
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But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That’s a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they’ll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
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I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn’t completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
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Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
this lecture
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
It would be folly for China to equivacate the two.
The US’s own war games indicate they cannot hold Taiwan.
China’s calculus for whether they need to invade Taiwan is based around whether there will be a peaceful reunification in the future or if it will be used as a springboard for military action against mainland China.
Maybe I should have been more specific, but that’s kind of what I mean. There is real Sinophobia in the US, especially among law makers. So I would see Taiwan given very little support, or a quick escalation to real war.